News-May-11

Microsoft Naysayer bandwagon gets crowded: http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=4820

Sarah Friar of Goldman Sachs:
It's over after Vista.
Microsoft needs markets that can move the revenue needle.
Microsoft will be hurt by Linux, Apple and software as a service.
Microsoft can't be nimble enough to compete with Google.
Microsoft's messaging stinks. [what's "Live"?]

"It all seems a bit premature. Sure Google may be sexier–just ask the Microsoft employees that are defecting and burning bridges on the way out–but can you really say a company with $28.8 billion in cash is on the downswing? I can't."
[http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=380]
-> ROE is 35+%. Should be able to repeat that
-> $17B 2006/7 spent on share buy-backs => propping up the share price



Chunks: hidden key to RAID Perf. http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=130
* Cache
* Striping
* Chunk Size [size of stripe on each drive]

Web DNA - Attributor: http://blogs.zdnet.com/micro-markets/?p=1321
-> Copyright Control, Monetisation On-line

Typical Linux Desktop User
http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=397
-> http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS9755856281.html

2008 Year of Mobile Linux? http://blogs.zdnet.com/mobile-gadgeteer/?p=359

RedHat takes OLPC knowledge corporate: (one Laptop per child) Global Desktop http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=5022

New Rules for Software VC. http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/editorial.php?id=132&page=4

Here is a list of must-haves to “jump start a startup” today and make it a candidate for venture investing.
* Begin with a first-class, seasoned management team

* Find a market undergoing demand growth where some form of disruption is creating a space for a new business

* Buy the components of the business – technology, distribution, customer base - that you can; only build what you have to (which usually does include building innovative technology

The Enterprise Software “Threatdown” http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/editorial.php?id=131 [Top 10 threats]

1. Buyer Ennui
2. Looming Skills Shortage
3. Software Security
4. Usability
5. India’s IT Services Firms
6. Private Equity Plays
7. New ERP Challengers
8. The On-Demand Model
9. Mobile
10. Software Appliances

SandHill: The State of the Software Industry – 2007
http://www.sandhill.com/opinion/editorial_print.php?id=133
Innovation Accelerating as a Top Priority
Internal Funding is Healthy -> revenue growing 9-13%
+ Margins are equally healthy. Megavendors (>$10B Rev) margins 35-40% EBITDA.
+ Margins rest 12-18%
+ software share of the customers’ IT budget will continue to increase
++ 2006: 29.6% expected 35.7% in 2009
External Funding Driven by Private Equity
+ Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) 26% in VC investment
Implications for Software Vendors and Customers
+ Customers: Customers have a paradox in front of them – how can a company that is increasingly spending their budget with the largest software vendors ensure they get access to smaller vendors who are driving innovation?
+ Vendors: Software vendors need to adapt to the bottom-up and center-out diffusion model within this innovation wave.



Sand Hill 30 - The stocks driving the next generation of software and services.
http://www.sandhill.com/finance/sandhill_index.php

Megavendors
Pure-play software vendors whose every move shakes the industry.
HP
IBM
Microsoft
Oracle
SAP

Big Shots
Well-positioned, large vendors in healthy sectors.
Adobe
BEA
CA
EMC
Intuit
Symantec

Specialists
Vendors with deep expertise and a strong market position.
Autodesk
Blackbaud
Business Objects
Cognos
Hyperion Solutions
Informatica
Lawson Software
Sybase
Tibco Software

New Big 5
The most powerful offshore IT services providers in the world.
Cognizant Technology Solutions
Infosys Technologies Ltd.
Satyam Computer Svcs.
Tata Consultancy Services
Wipro Ltd.

New Agers
Next-generation vendors leveraging new technologies and models.
Red Hat
RightNow Technologies
Salesforce.com
Taleo
WebEx Communications